Optimasi Keputusan Investasi Migas Menggunakan Perbandingan Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) dan Decision Tree of Timing Option Analisis



The impact of new oil and gas regulation (UU No.22/2001) had led, mainly, Pertamina to run its business in standard-fashion of oil business. An indirect impact from this change is the budget limitation for exploration well projects. To get an optimum result in such condition, the planning and techno-economics assessment should be done perfectly. Technical aspect is used to be assessed as a standard procedure in the exploration projects, but economic aspect still need to be intensely explored.
Autonomy regulations (UU otonomi daerah) had given the local government, i.e. pemerintah kabupaten and provinsi, a broader authorization to manage their resources and communities. This current issue became another risk factor that never been considered in the business previously.
To analyze such problems, the DCF (Discount Cash Flow) and Decision Tree of Timing Option analysis has been conducted in seven exploration wells by inputting a three-year REPA Index (region risk factors). The result from those analysis is an index of investment that called RI3 Index. Zero-One Programming method was used in portfolio analysis and showed that rank of investation from both analyses is different.
The result of this analysis could be an important consideration for the management of exploration) in running their business, especially in current condition when the availability of drilling site is getting more restricted and the budget is limited.


Authors : Dedi Yusmen & Sudarso Kaderi Wiryono